Reality of Market

High Return

In the Equity market, valuations have seen sharp corrections (across several metrics such as relative to other emerging markets, earnings-bond yield gap, Market cap to GDP, and in the mid & small-cap segment). Sentiments, as measured by our proprietary indicator, have moved to the pessimistic extreme, which augurs well for 12 months forward returns. As such, the equity market looks attractive from the forward returns perspective. We expect earnings growth to improve over its average growth of 5% in the last five years but unlikely to meet street expectations of earnings growth of +30% for FY20. Our top-down earnings growth forecast for FY20 is at ~20% led primarily by the financials. Ex of financials, earnings growth is likely to remain muted. Having said that, corporate profits to GDP have touched a multi-decade low and a mean reversion should be in order. Both, the global and domestic environment can’t look gloomier than this but precisely at these points, one should not lose sight of the long-term picture. Since 1982 every year there were one or other crisis markets come across and it’s very normal behavior of the market for which we believe nothing to take seriously. As it’s a normal nature of the market so we need to take it as normal.

 

The list is for your reference. 1982 – the Worst recession in 40 years, debt crisis. 1983 – Market hits record – “Market too high”. 1984 – Record U.S. Federal deficits. 1985 – Economic growth slows. 1986 – Dow nears 2000 – “Market too high” 1987 – The Crash -Black Monday. 1988 – Fear of Recession. 1989 – Junk Bond collapse. 1990 – Gulf War, the worst market decline in 16 years. 1991 – Recession – “Market too high” 1992 – Elections, market flat. 1993 – Businesses continue restructuring. 1994 – Interest rates are going up. 1995 – The market is too high. 1996 – Fear of Inflation. 1997 – Irrational Exuberance. 1998 – Asia Crisis. 1999 – Y2K. 2000 – Technology Correction. 2001 – Recession, World Trade Center Attack. 2002 – Corporate Accounting Scandals. 2003 – War in Iraq. 2004 – the U.S. has massive trade & budget deficits. 2005 – Record oil & gas prices. 2006 – Housing bubble bursts. 2007 – Sub-prime mortgage crisis. 2008 – Banking & Credit crisis. 2009 – Recession – “Credit Crunch” 2010 – Sovereign debt crisis. 2011 – Eurozone crisis. 2012 – U.S. fiscal cliff. 2013 – Federal Reserve to “taper” stimulus. 2014 – Oil prices plunge. 2015 – Chinese stock market sell-off. 2016 – Brexit, U.S. presidential election. 2017 – Stocks at record highs, Bitcoin mania. 2018 – Trade Wars, rising interest rates. 2019 – India GDP at 5 % We strongly believe that when the market in this situation just buys in the sale. because in a good market you need to give premium a today things are available in discount. Current challenges are surely big but not insurmountable.

 

Happy Investing!!!

IMPERIAL MONEY

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